Today, the market sentiment will largely depend on various comments and the BoE’s decision concerning the extension of the quantitative easing program.
The Bank of England is likely to extend the QE program to 745 billion pounds from 645 billion pounds. Most market participants are expecting such an outcome as representatives of the central bank have repeatedly spoken about it.
At the same, the BoE’s decision on the key rate is the main issue. The fact is that the regulator may lower the benchmark rate without pushing it into negative territory. At the same time, the ECB and the US Fed do not have such an opportunity. The UK’s central bank may announce its intention to cut the key rate in the near future. In this case, markets’ reaction could be rather strong as the economic condition is getting worse. In fact, the UK’s macroeconomic dynamic is forcing the regulator to lower the key rate to the zero level. It is obvious that such an action will have an extremely negative influence on the pound sterling and even on the euro.
Future dynamic of the main European currencies is also shaped by the US statistical data. Thus, analysts suppose that the number of unemployment claims may continue dropping. Despite the fact that the general number of claims is still large, the current dynamic is considered to be positive. In other words, the US labor market is gradually recovering though at a rather slow pace.
Yesterday, sellers of the euro/dollar pair made an attempt to break the area of 1.1210/1.1250. However, the pair slowed down and rebounded.
According to the chart, the euro/dollar pair is still trading near 1.1210/1.1250. We can also see accumulation that may lead to the market acceleration. There are two scenarios. The quote may continue the uptrend that began on May 25th or it may resume the downward trend. Everything depends on the pair’s movement around 1.1210/1.1250.
If the price consolidates below 1.1200, it may return to the levels of 1.1180-1.1150-1.1080. The pair may also hover within the range of 1.1210/1.1400 and rebound from the lower limit. Buy positions could be opened if the price consolidates above 1.1270 with the target at 1.1300-1.1350.
Let’s take a look at the pound/dollar pair. Yesterday, the pair continued its correctional movement and approached the level of 1.2500 and found support. We can see accumulation within the levels of 1.2510/1.2565. At the same time, market participants are waiting for the BoE’s meeting results. If the price consolidates below 1.2500, it may start moving towards 1.2450 and then, to 1.2350. According to the alternative scenario, the pair may fluctuate above 1.2500 amid the accumulation and current news. If the price consolidates above 1.2585, it may jump to 1.2620-1.2650.
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